China’s PLA threatens US underwater dominance

Hong Kong, March 31 (ANI): China is dramatically modernising its submarine fleet, even though developments remain cloaked in secrecy. The USA has traditionally held a comfortable lead over China in terms of underwater warfare, but Beijing is working hard to erode this advantage by enhancing its submarine fleet, expanding anti-submarine warfare capabilities, and investing in seabed sensors and networked surveillance.
In testimony given before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on 2 March 2026, Rear Admiral Mike Brookes, Intelligence Director - Navy Commander, US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI), offered predictions about China's future submarine force.
He said, by 2027, China's submarine force is projected to reach roughly 70 boats, up from the current 60+, and "adding up to six SSGNs [guided-missile nuclear-powered attack submarines], three smaller-class SSNs [nuclear-powered attack submarines] and two SSBNs [nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines], while retiring older Chinese and Russian-built submarines." This is a remarkable feat, adding some eleven nuclear-powered submarines in the next two years.
Brookes predicted that, by 2035, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could have 80 submarines, half of which are nuclear-powered. He described this as "a major shift in force composition". It will come soon after the time when the US Navy's (USN) SSN fleet reaches a trough of 46 vessels in 2030.
By the early 2040s, China may have 20-30 new-class SSGNs and SSBNs in service. "These platforms will be designed from the keel up for blue-water operations and persistent presence beyond the First Island Chain, representing an evolution in PLA Navy undersea operational capabilities," Brookes testified.
Exemplifying this, a new SSGN class showed up in February satellite imagery after a submarine moved to a launch bay at the Bohai Shipyard in Huludao. The new 9,000-10,000-ton submarine's nomenclature is Type 09V (or more commonly, the Type 095).
Rick Joe, an expert on the PLA, told ANI that the 12m-wide Type 095 is wider than the preceding Type 093 family by around 1m. He listed likely design features such as an X-shaped rudder, hull-mounted and retractable diving planes to improve speed and agility, and a pumpjet propulsor. The boat is rumoured to be the first Chinese submarine without a double hull; instead, it might have either a single or a hybrid hull.
The Type 095, measuring approximately 110m long, has an estimated eight universal vertical launch system (VLS) cells. Like the latest American Virginia-class SSNs, each cell could contain all-up-round canisters, containing perhaps three missiles each in China's case.
Asked for an assessment of the Type 095's capabilities, Joe responded, "In terms of how the 095 may compare with Western SSNs, I'm hesitant to give a direct answer, simply because the topic is so fraught and depends on a variety of assumptions (e.g. pressure hull arrangement, underlying advancement in reactor technologies, machining quality and advancement of current quietening technologies)."
However, he noted, "the silencing and overall capability estimates for the 095 should have a much higher upper bound than any prior PLAN SSN class." Joe said it is prudent to consider the new platform as being competitive with contemporary Western SSNs.
He said such a conclusion can be construed from lessons taken from other aspects of Chinese naval shipbuilding. The PLAN has successively focused domestic industry on various aspects of its fleet, such as frigates, destroyers, conventional submarines and air wings.
"As the requisite industry/technology underlying those domains becomes capable and mature enough to develop competitive end products that are worth serial production at scale, it appears we may now be at that stage with SSNs," Joe remarked.
In the same US hearing as Brookes, Vice Admiral Richard Seif, Commander, Submarine Forces of the USN, testified that China's new Type 095 SSGN "represents significant advances in capabilities, posing a multi-faceted threat to the US and its interests in the Indo-Pacific. These next-generation submarines are formidable, incorporating advanced technologies that challenge the US Navy's long-standing undersea dominance. These SSGNs are significantly more capable than China's previous submarines, with enhancements in stealth, propulsion and armament, with the ability to launch a significant salvo of long-range land attack cruise missiles from a concealed, submerged position."
It is difficult to say when the first Type 095 might enter PLAN service, but it could be as far away as 2029 after fitting out and extensive sea trials. China often builds two submarines of a new type before commencing series production, to allow problems to be ironed out. This therefore suggests ongoing construction of the incumbent Type 093B will continue into the early 2030s.
Brookes highlighted a dramatic increase in China's domestic submarine production capacity, "through major infrastructure investments at three primary shipyards, accelerating production from less than one nuclear submarine per year to significantly higher rates. These expansions include the construction of expansive facilities that have tripled construction hall capacity, enabling higher production rates for conventional submarines, while upgraded infrastructure now accommodates the construction of larger-diameter, advanced submarines across all three facilities. These investments, initiated as early as 2010, have more than doubled China's submarine production capacity and position the PLA Navy for sustained force expansion through the 2030s and beyond."
As an example, Bohai Shipyard - where China builds its nuclear-powered submarines - has space for twelve 144m-long assembly slots in its Eastern Assembly Hall.
Meanwhile, the newer Southern Assembly Hall has eight assembly slots measuring 157.5m long. Theoretically, these halls could simultaneously accommodate 20 SSN-sized boats.
What about the current size and composition of the PLAN's submarine fleet?
Brookes listed six SSNs providing China's offensive backbone, at least two SSGNs for precision strike (at least six of eight expected units have launched since 2022), six SSBNs for nuclear deterrence, and more than 50 diesel-electric submarines. The latter category includes Yuan-class and Song-class conventional submarines fitted with air-independent propulsion (AIP) that considerably extends their ability to stay submerged.
Joe surmised that China is launching three new SSNs annually, compared to a rate of just 1.1-1.3 boats per year in the USA. Brookes also highlighted that the PLAN is "executing a significant strategic shift from diesel-electric to all-nuclear construction, representing a fundamental departure from historical construction patterns." One fruit of this is the Type 041 Zhou-class SSN, which the ONI commander described as "a small-scale, low-power nuclear submarine approximately the size of conventional submarines, but with greater endurance, potentially filling regional patrol and presence missions more economically than full-size SSNs and SSGNs".
Turning to SSBNs, Joe assessed that the PLAN presently has six Type 094 boats and possibly another 1-2 being fitted out after being launched in recent years. These will be followed by the next-generation Type 096 SSBN.
Indeed, Brookes testified that both the "Type 095 SSGN and Type 096 SSBN represent next-generation platforms expected to enter service during the late 2020s through 2030s. These submarines will incorporate substantial advancements in nuclear-reactor design, sensor performance, weapons integration and noise-quieting technologies."
The Type 096 SSBN will be armed with JL-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
Like the JL-4, the PLAN is improving submarine weaponry as well. Brookes pointed out: "China will likely field a more survivable and numerous ballistic-missile submarine force equipped with longer-range, more accurate SLBMs, enabling patrols in bastions closer to home waters, while holding the US homeland at risk. Broader deployment of long-range, potentially hypersonic anti-ship and land attack missiles from undersea platforms is anticipated, along with more sophisticated torpedoes and unmanned vehicles for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, mine warfare and strike missions."
One new anti-ship missile that could potentially arm the Type 095 is the YJ-19 hypersonic missile unveiled at China's military parade in September 2025. Joe described the hypersonic YJ-19 as an "air-breathing scramjet cruise missile sized for submarine torpedo tubes (553mm). It certainly is likely to offer quite a boost in anti-surface strike capability, especially as they don't have to be launched via VLS, but can, in theory, be launched from any submarine with torpedo tubes and adequate integration with the combat management system."
In February 2026, the PLAN revealed it had accepted the YJ-19 for service on Type 039B conventional submarines. This makes China the first country in the world to arm diesel-electric submarines with hypersonic weapons. The PLAN is estimated to have fielded just over a dozen of these Yuan-class submarines.
Joe said the VLS cells on the Type 093B/095 are sized for larger missiles like the YJ-20, YJ-17 glide vehicle-type missile and possibly a scaled-up, hypersonic, air-breathing scramjet cruise missile similar to the YJ-19.
Brookes noted that he expects Chinese submarines to roam far more widely in the future. "The Indo-Pacific will remain the PLA Navy's primary focus, but by 2040, routine submarine deployments to the Indian Ocean, Arctic approaches and possibly the Atlantic are likely."
Seif also highlighted Chinese investment in seabed sensors, undersea cables and unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV). For instance, the PLAN has a fleet of underwater gliders collecting oceanographic data, a handful of which have been found in Philippine waters. Some of these have passive acoustic vector sensors, suggesting they have an anti-submarine warfare (ASW) role.
China has also fielded extra-large UUVs like the HSU001 (configurable for reconnaissance-type missions) and AJX002 (with a potential mining role).
Development concepts include modular payloads and networked operations where unmanned systems operate in swarms. These could control key undersea areas and potentially target submarines as they depart port.
Another aspect is China's layered undersea surveillance networks, referred to as the "underwater great wall". Brookes remarked, "Central to this effort is a seabed sensor architecture, including the Blue Ocean Information Network, that integrates fixed and floating platforms, satellite-linked buoys, mobile UUVs and underwater sonar arrays into a comprehensive detection system."
China's ASW capabilities from the air, surface and subsurface are improving too, with renewed focus on maritime patrol aircraft, modern ships with towed-array sonars, embarked helicopters and quieter electric propulsion. Catamarans optimised for undersea domain awareness are also being inducted, plus command and control and training are all being enhanced.
Seif noted: "The goal is not necessarily to 'defeat' submarines everywhere, but to increase the probability of detection and tracking of submarines in specific areas that matter strategically. This is a critical point: undersea competition is often localised. A nation does not need to make the entire ocean transparent; it can seek advantage by improving detection in chokepoints, approaches to key operating areas, or defensive 'bastions' intended to protect high-value assets so they can safely carry out combat operations."
China's submarine force is improving, but it still has some way to go. Ryan D. Martinson, in a Center for International Maritime Security article published last year, noted: "The PLAN is investing in submarines because it recognises their tremendous potential deterrent and warfighting value. That value, however, hinges on the ability of their boats to operate undetected. According to Chinese military experts, however, that basic requirement cannot be guaranteed - not even close."
Martinson quoted from a November 2023 issue of Military Art, a prestigious journal published by the Chinese Academy of Military Science. It reflected the opinions of three PLAN officers, who warned that peacetime operations of Chinese submarines are highly vulnerable to the USN's undersea surveillance system within the First Island Chain, so much so that they raised questions about their strategic and operational utility.
The three Chinese officers said American surveillance systems exert "strategic pressure" on China with their ability to track submarines. They argued, "the probability that PRC submarines are discovered when leaving port is extremely high", and "there is a fairly high probability that PRC submarines will be detected and intercepted while operating in the Near Seas". Next, they warned that the USA could cut off Chinese submarine access to sea lanes.
Thirdly, the three Chinese officers said the USA is intensifying efforts to achieve unilateral transparency at China's expense. Finally, they said the USA's undersea surveillance system "undermines the country's undersea nuclear deterrent".
All is not lost for Beijing, however. China believes it is already "squeezing" American surveillance capabilities, plus the system has vulnerabilities amplified by the sheer size of the Western Pacific. In wartime, the PLA believes it can degrade and remove American nodes through soft-kill and hard destruction measures, causing it to lose functionality. (ANI)